WASHINGTON — Metropolitan areas across the Sun Belt added about 1.4 million residents over the past year, according to new population estimates released Thursday, continuing a long shift in where Americans live and work.
The figures, analyzed by the National Population Research Center, show the fastest growth in metro areas around Dallas, Houston, Austin, Phoenix, Orlando, Tampa, Charlotte and Raleigh. Several large metros in the Northeast, Midwest and West Coast recorded small declines or flat growth. “The center of gravity of American population keeps moving south and west,” said Dr. Lauren Whitaker, the center’s director. “It’s driven by jobs, housing costs, retirement choices and, increasingly, remote work.”
Where the growth is
Texas and Florida accounted for nearly half of the gains, with strong growth also in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Tennessee. Much of the growth came from people moving between states, with additional gains from births and international arrivals.
- Total Sun Belt metro growth: about 1.4 million residents
- Fastest-growing large metro: up about 2.6 percent
- Share of growth in Texas and Florida: nearly half
- Metros with declines: about a dozen, mostly in the Northeast and Midwest
Suburbs and exurbs on the edges of large metros saw the biggest gains, as new housing developments drew families looking for more space and lower prices than in city centers.
Growing pains
Rapid growth has brought challenges, including traffic congestion, rising home prices and pressure on water supplies and schools. Local officials say they are racing to build roads, expand utilities and add classrooms.
Growth is a sign that people want to be here. But we need to make sure the roads, schools and water systems keep up, or we’ll lose what drew people in the first place.
Carlos Mendoza, planning director for a county outside Phoenix
Some longtime residents have voiced concerns about rising costs and changes to community character. In fast-growing suburbs, housing prices have climbed sharply, and some workers say they’re being priced out of the areas where they work. Meanwhile, cities losing population say the picture is more complicated than raw numbers suggest. Officials in several Northern metros noted that downtown populations have stabilized, and that declines in some areas have slowed compared with previous years.
“Population isn’t the only measure of a healthy city,” said Rebecca Torres, an urban economist at the Great Lakes Policy Institute. “Many of these places are seeing rising incomes, strong universities and growing industries. Smaller doesn’t necessarily mean weaker.”
The shifts also have political implications. Population changes help determine how seats in the House of Representatives are distributed after each decennial census. Analysts said that if current trends continue, several Sun Belt states could gain seats after the next census, while some Northern states could lose them. Both major parties have campaigned actively in fast-growing suburbs, which have become competitive in recent elections.
Researchers caution that annual estimates can be revised, and that trends can shift with economic changes, housing costs and remote work policies. Rising home insurance costs in some coastal areas and water limits in parts of the Southwest could slow growth in the years ahead.
For now, moving trucks continue to head south. In a new subdivision outside Charlotte, Jason and Emily Park unpacked boxes after moving from Pennsylvania. “We wanted a yard, a shorter commute and a little more sunshine,” Emily Park said. “We found all three.”
