Awards Night Predictions: Our Critics Weigh In

Our critics made their awards predictions this week, and they did not agree. Over two long lunches, three pots of coffee and one heated argument about a supporting performance, our film team went category by category through this year’s nominees. We asked each critic to answer two questions for every race: who will win, and who should win. The gap between those two answers says a lot about how awards work, and it makes for a much more interesting read than a simple list of favorites. Here is where we landed, along with the reasoning behind each call.

How we made our picks

Predicting awards is part science, part gut feeling. Our critics looked at the earlier guild and critics’ circle prizes, the buzz coming out of the fall festivals and the kinds of films voters have rewarded in the past. Then they set all of that aside and asked which films and performances actually moved them.

We used a simple method for each category:

• Each of our four critics submitted a “will win” and a “should win” pick in secret.
• The “will win” pick with the most votes became our official prediction.
• The “should win” pick was chosen by the critic who argued for it most convincingly.
• Ties were broken by our awards editor, who has the final word and the most regrets.

Best Picture

Will win: “Orbit Nine.” Should win: “The Quiet Year.”

“Orbit Nine” is the kind of film awards voters love to reward. A large-scale space drama about a rescue mission to a failing research station, it combines dazzling visual effects with a surprisingly emotional story about a mother trying to get home to her daughter. It has been the box-office success of the fall, it has won most of the early prizes and its director gave the most moving acceptance speech of the season so far. Three of our four critics believe it will take the top prize.

But the critic who loved “The Quiet Year” made a passionate case. This small drama follows a widowed farmer in rural Nebraska through the twelve months after her husband’s death. There are no explosions and very little dialogue. Instead, there is the slow work of planting, harvesting and learning to live with grief. It is the film our team keeps talking about weeks after seeing it, and we believe it will be remembered long after the louder contenders fade.

Predictions are fun because they’re usually wrong.

Our awards editor

The dark horse

Do not count out “Saltwater,” the festival hit shot on a single ferry with one camera. It has passionate supporters, and in a year when voters are split, a beloved underdog can sneak through.

Best Actress

This one is a tight race between two first-time nominees, and it is the category our critics argued about most.

On one side is Clara Whitmore for “The Quiet Year,” whose nearly wordless performance as the widowed farmer has drawn comparisons to the great silent film stars. Every emotion plays across her face in small, precise movements. On the other side is Jade Okafor, who plays the stranded astronaut mother in “Orbit Nine.” Her role is louder and more physical, and her final scene, a radio message recorded for her daughter, left audiences in tears at every screening we attended.

Our prediction: Okafor will win, narrowly, riding the momentum of her film. Our preference: Whitmore, by a hair. Honestly, either would be a deserving winner, and both actors are clearly at the start of remarkable careers.

The rest of the major races

Here are our quick calls in the other headline categories.

Best Actor

Will win: Marcus Hale for “The Long Road Home,” a road movie about a father driving his estranged son across Texas. Should win: the same. It is the one category where all four of our critics agreed, which almost never happens.

Best Director

Will win: the director of “Orbit Nine,” for sheer technical ambition. Should win: Ivy Chen for “Saltwater,” who turned a tiny budget and one ferry into the most inventive filmmaking of the year.

Supporting performances

Our critics predict veteran character actor Walter Brooks will win Best Supporting Actor for his gentle turn as a retired lighthouse keeper in “Harbor Song.” In the Supporting Actress race, newcomer Lily Tran’s work as a sharp-tongued teenage sister in “Second Cousins” has quietly gained ground, and we think she may pull off an upset.

What these picks say about the year

Looking across the categories, a pattern emerges. The big, crowd-pleasing films are likely to collect a lot of trophies this year, but the smaller, quieter films are the ones our critics wish would win. That tension is nothing new. Awards voters often reward the films that made the most noise, while critics tend to champion the ones that took the biggest artistic risks.

It has also been a remarkable year for first-time nominees. Seven of this year’s acting nominees have never been recognized before, which suggests voters are looking beyond familiar names. For movie fans, that is great news. It means more new voices, more new stories and a much more interesting ceremony to watch.

The craft categories deserve attention too. Our critics expect “Orbit Nine” to sweep visual effects, sound and production design, which is typical for a film of its size. Cinematography is more open. The sweeping wheat fields of “The Quiet Year” were shot almost entirely at dawn and dusk, and the results are some of the most beautiful images of the year. “Saltwater,” meanwhile, was shot handheld on a moving ferry, and its tight, rocking frames make you feel the water under your feet. Our team is split down the middle on this one, which means you should probably watch both and decide for yourself.

Original score is another race to watch. The composer behind “Harbor Song” wrote the entire soundtrack for a single fiddle and an old pump organ, and it has become a surprise hit on streaming playlists. Big orchestral scores often win this category, but voters have been known to fall for something small and memorable. We would not be shocked to see the fiddle take home a trophy.

Finally, keep an eye on the documentary category, where the ocean film “Deep Water” is the clear front-runner after four years of filming along a single coastline. It is the rare nature documentary that has crossed over to a general audience, and our critics believe its unbroken shot of a whale and her calf will be remembered as one of the great images of the year.

Key takeaway: If you are filling out a ballot for an office pool, go with our “will win” picks. If you are building a watchlist, follow the “should win” column instead.

Make your own predictions

Now it is your turn. Our awards tracker lists every nominee in every category, and you can mark your own picks and compare them with ours as the winners are announced. Watch along with us on awards night, when our critics will be updating the tracker live and, very likely, eating their words.

Whatever happens, we hope you will seek out at least one film from this list that you have not seen yet. Awards come and go, but a great movie stays with you. And if we get every prediction wrong, well, our awards editor already warned you.