Opening night is two weeks away. We ranked every team in the Western Conference by how likely it is to make the finals. That is a different question from who will win the most regular-season games. Some teams are built to pile up wins in January. Others are built to survive a seven-game series in May. Our rankings lean toward the second group, because in the end that is the only thing that matters to fans who have waited years for a deep playoff run.
The West this season looks like a conference with three clear contenders, a crowded middle and a handful of teams that should be thinking about the future. One franchise, in particular, should be trading everyone over 25. We will get to that.
The full ranking
Here is our order, from most likely to reach the finals to least likely. Records from last season are in parentheses.
- Austin (52–30)
- Denver (54–28)
- Los Angeles (50–32)
- Phoenix (47–35)
- Portland (46–36)
- Dallas (45–37)
- Seattle (44–38)
- Houston (42–40)
- San Diego (40–42)
- Memphis (38–44)
- Salt Lake City (36–46)
- New Orleans (33–49)
- Minneapolis (31–51)
- Oklahoma City (27–55)
- Sacramento (24–58)
The contenders
Austin, Denver and Los Angeles have the top-end talent and depth to survive a seven-game series. Austin’s trade makes it the favorite. The Comets already had one of the league’s best defenses and a young center who is quickly becoming one of the most dominant players in basketball. Adding four-time All-Star guard Darius Webb gives them the shot creator they lacked in last year’s second-round loss, when their offense stalled in the final minutes of close games.
Denver is the safest pick among the three. Denver returns almost its entire rotation from a team that won 54 games, and their starting five has played together for three seasons. Their passing and spacing are the best in the conference. The concern is age. Two of Denver’s starters are over 32, and the team struggled when injuries piled up late last season.
Los Angeles has the highest ceiling and the most questions. The team has two genuine stars and a deep bench, but it has also had trouble staying healthy. When its top players were on the court together last season, Los Angeles outscored opponents by more than ten points per 100 possessions. When they were not, the team was ordinary. If both stars stay healthy through April, Los Angeles could beat anyone.
Why Austin gets the edge
Our pick comes down to balance. Austin is the only one of the three with a top-five defense, a proven closer and a center under 25. That combination is rare. The Comets gave up depth to get Webb, but in the playoffs, rotations shrink and stars play more minutes. That is exactly where Austin’s trade should pay off.
The middle
Phoenix, Portland and Dallas are good enough for the playoffs and probably not good enough for June. Health will decide the order. Each of these teams has a clear strength and a clear weakness, and none has the depth of the top three.
Phoenix has one of the best backcourts in the league but very little size. Portland has an exciting young core and a coach who gets the most out of his players, but it lacks a reliable second scorer. Dallas has a superstar who can win any single game, though the supporting cast remains thin, especially on defense.
The order inside this group could shift quickly. Phoenix’s guards both missed significant time last season, and the team went just 9–14 without them. Portland’s young core will be another year older and stronger, which could be enough to push it into the top four. Dallas, meanwhile, made two quiet signings this summer aimed at shoring up its defense, and if those veterans have one more good year left, the team could be more dangerous than its record suggests. We would not be shocked to see any of the three finish fourth.
Seattle, Houston and San Diego sit just behind them. All three should compete for spots in the play-in tournament, and any one of them could make a jump if a young player breaks out. Seattle, in particular, has a second-year forward who looked like a future All-Star over the final two months of last season.
Depth wins in April. Stars win in June.
Former coach Alan Brewer
Brewer, who coached in the league for more than a decade and now works as a television analyst, said the middle of the West is where depth matters most. A team like Portland or Seattle can win plenty of regular-season games by playing ten or eleven players hard every night. But in a playoff series against a contender, the game slows down, and the team with the best two or three players usually wins.
The franchise that should sell
Minneapolis is the team we mentioned at the top. It has spent the past three seasons stuck in the middle of the standings, with a group of veterans who are too good to tank and not good enough to contend. The roster includes five players over 25 who would draw strong interest from contenders, and the team has only one of its own first-round picks in the next three years.
Our advice is blunt. Minneapolis should trade its veterans now, while they still have value, and start over around its two promising rookies. It is a painful step for any franchise, but staying in the middle has not worked, and the longer the team waits, the less its veterans will bring back.
The rebuilders
Sacramento now owns 11 first-round picks over the next seven years. The losing will be ugly this season. It may be worth it. The team sent Webb to Austin for two first-round picks and has committed fully to a youth movement. Its starting lineup could include three players under 23.
Oklahoma City is further along in its rebuild, with a young point guard who averaged nearly 20 points as a rookie. New Orleans and Salt Lake City are somewhere in between, with good young players but no clear direction. Memphis, after a disappointing season, could go either way depending on how its veterans perform in the first two months.
For fans of these teams, the next year will require patience. Here is what to watch as a sign of progress:
- Young players improving month to month, especially on defense.
- Smart use of extra draft picks, either through the draft or in trades.
- Coaching staffs that stay committed to development over short-term wins.
- A clear identity, whether that is pace, defense or shooting.
Key takeaway: The West has three real contenders, a deep middle class and several rebuilding teams. Austin’s trade has made it the team to beat.
Our finals pick
We expect Austin and Denver to meet in the conference finals, with Los Angeles as the most dangerous threat if its stars stay healthy. Our pick to come out of the West is Austin, in a series that we think will go at least six games. The Comets’ combination of defense, size and late-game scoring should be enough, but it will not be easy.
Plenty can change, of course. Injuries, midseason trades and breakout players will reshape this list several times before April. We will update our rankings every week of the season, alongside live standings with playoff lines and play-in markers.
Follow opening night on our live score strip, and vote in our fan poll to tell us which Western Conference team you think will surprise everyone this year.
